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Category: economics

Things are going down…

Things are going down…

Like me on the Oxford canal, heading in a southward direction.

Not only that, but in many other areas of life in and across the world.

My life as a trader

You may or may not know that I spend a lot of my spare time looking at markets, reading economic journals and placing occasional trades on conventional and crypto assets. A day trader, you might say.

Taking in some of the moves in those markets, and predictions for the future leads me conclude that things are definitely moving, in a downward direction.🔻

I believe that life in the UK and the economy under the current prime minister is not viable, and given time will implode. Even in the last few days I read posts about Crispen Odey, one of Kwasi Kwarteng’s close friends, making 145% on UK bond crash, (below).

Relying on ‘trickle down economics‘ at a time of financial tsunami? It’s supplying those at the top with more incentive. Doesn’t make sense unless you want the top 5% to benefit significantly more at a time when they really don’t need any more.

This is the value of government 10 year gilts (debt bonds) going back to 2004

Even if you don’t understand this graph, (which I’m not going to explain), you can see the movements are pretty drastic.

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China to lay off 1.8 million workers or 6 million workers

China to lay off 1.8 million workers or 6 million workers

I wonder if they’ll do it by text.

Here’s the article, taken from the Guardian.

*Update: News from Reuters is that the figure may be closer to 6 million.

China slowdown

China expects to lay off 1.8 million workers in the coal and steel industries, or about 15% of the workforce, as part of efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity.

It was the first time China gave figures that underlining the magnitude of its task in dealing with slowing growth and bloated state enterprises.

Yin Weimin, the minister for human resources and social security, told a news conference on Monday that 1.3 million workers in the coal sector could lose their jobs, plus 500,000 from the steel sector.

China’s coal and steel sectors employ about 12 million workers, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics. “This involves the resettlement of a total of 1.8 million workers. This task will be very difficult, but we are still very confident,” Yin said.

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VOD: New Zealand – Cruelty, The dark side of dairy

VOD: New Zealand – Cruelty, The dark side of dairy

New Zealand has one of the biggest dairy industries in the world.

Not just for fresh products, such as milk and cheese, but also processed foods such a baby powdered milk.

The industry does have a dark side.

Every  year, each cattle must calf. This keeps them lactating.

Once the calf is born, it begins on a journey, the video shows their journey.

New Zealands diary industry
Animal cruelty in New Zealand’s diary industry

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VOD: China’s growth figure closer to 2%

VOD: China’s growth figure closer to 2%

This stat has been bandied about in the absence of any believable figures from the government for some time…

Property Pear

Since China’s property bubble went pear-shaped and threatened to pop, figures having been fighting a turning tide of debt fueled domestic demand, and generally flat export and rising wages.

June’s black-Monday on the Shanghai stock exchange have only highlighted what many China insiders have been speculating for a long time.

Foreign Dumping

The whole thing’s a house of cards and it’s not a case of ‘if’, but ‘when’.

The authorities are holding out – perhaps in the hope they can dump the blame elsewhere when things eventually do go tits up. The current South China Sea situation plays into this whole scenario…

Many reckon that rather than risk political and economic destruction, it would be simpler for the government go to war and call for national cohesion in the face of the ‘foreign devils’ who threaten the heavenly kingdom’s 5,000 year old culture and envy at it’s regime.

Here’s the video.

China's growth closer to 2pc
China’s growth closer to 2pc

TPP – the secret bill to affect 40% of world trade

TPP – the secret bill to affect 40% of world trade

If you ever thought moving to another planet was a good idea, here’s a reason why.

TPP countries

TPP is being negotiated in secret by governments of the above countries. None of the residents of these countries can read the bill, yet they are all effected.

The main bones of contention

ISDS, investor-state dispute settlement; Provides exceptional legal privileges to foreign investors not enjoyed by domestic companies or the public by providing private arbitration funded by the tax-payer.
Not a new thing, ISDS has been re-vamped to ensure that multi-national corporations do not suffer from changes in the law in host countries,even when those laws are in the public interest.
ISDS link #1 | ISDS link #2

IP/DRM: Making sharing of a multi-national companies sensitive information a criminal offense. The sharing of copyright material a criminal offense, even for non-commercial purposes.
Under proposals, ISP’s will be responsible to report you, the consumer, to the authorities if you’ve breached copyright law.
Under TPP, I could be prosecuted for quoting these articles, even though they’re for the public information. I’m not seeking to claim they belong to me in any way…. Still a criminal offense….
TPP DRM Copyright

Overall, the TPP represents a radical shift in the role of intellectual property across the Pacific Rim. Under the agreement, intellectual property will be transformed into a means of protecting the investments of multinational companies in culture, advertising, and medicine.

The public interest in access to knowledge, public health and technology transfer has been given short shrift under the plan.” – Dr Matthew Rimmer

Read more below.

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China’s gold bullion reserve rival US’s

China’s gold bullion reserve rival US’s

China is strengthening it’s bullion reserves to present its currency as an alternative to the US dollar.

Considering the debt ratio’s and relative leveraging of the currency, this is something that must have the Americans worried.


rp_IMGP1030-756373.JPGThe title is of course a little misleading because China has many options, none of which except one in my opinion will actually work.  Options to what exactly you ask?  Options to a collapsing global economy and an imploding financial system which will surely affect China as much as anywhere else, but with one caveat.  I take these events as a given, others do not but betting against an outright panic and global bankruptcy is betting against pure mathematics itself.

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3.3 million new investors sign up to for China’s dicey stock market in the last week

3.3 million new investors sign up to for China’s dicey stock market in the last week

The surging stock markets in both mainland China and Hong Kong in recent weeks have drawn plenty of people to suggest that, when something rises so fast, it can only end badly. If the sheer volume of eager traders is anything to go by, Chinese stocks are unlikely to return to normality any time soon.

Last week, 3.3 million people in China opened new brokerage accounts to buy “A-shares,” as Chinese mainland-listed stocks are called, according to the China Securities Depository and Clearing Company.

That brings the number of people able to buy and sell shares in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and—thanks to a recent Shanghai-Hong Kong hook-up—Hong Kong, to almost 200 million.

China's stock market bubble
China’s stock market bubble

Over the past two years, signups averaged fewer than 300,000 per week. Even at the height of China’s last bull market, in 2007, the most weekly signups was still only half last week’s volume.

Source: QZ